Analysts: Russia Prioritizes Offensive in Eastern Ukraine Over Defense of Kursk
Despite Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region, Russian forces are 'maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo' in Ukraine's east, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in their latest report on Thursday....
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Facts
- Despite Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region, Russian forces are 'maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo' in Ukraine's east, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in their latest report on Thursday.[1]
- Since Ukraine launched its surprise offensive last week, it is estimated that it has advanced as far as 22 miles (35 km) into Russian territory. On Thursday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his forces had claimed full control over the Russian town of Sudzha — roughly six miles (10 km) from the international border — strategically significant as it is home to a Russian terminal that supplies gas to Europe via Ukraine.[2]
- Meanwhile, the US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, speaking to CNN on Thursday, said that Russia appeared to have diverted a number of troops from Ukraine to counter Ukraine's Kursk operation. However, he added that this did not mean Russia had given up its military aspirations in Ukraine, stating that active fighting is still ongoing.[3]
- That aligned with the most recent update from Ukraine's General Staff, which reported upwards of 140 combat clashes on the frontlines over the past day. It added that the most intense fighting remained near the Donetsk city of Pokrovsk — a Ukrainian transport hub that serves as a key supply route for its troops elsewhere in the region.[4][5]
- In its analysis, ISW said that Russia had made a number of confirmed advances near the city in the past day, adding that: 'Russian forces are continuing to pursue a tactical encirclement of Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk.'[1]
- ISW further stated that, while Russia has redeployed forces from Ukraine to Kursk, 'the types of units that are redeploying, and where they are redeploying from, is a strong indicator that the Russian military command is still prioritizing ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.'[1]
Sources: [1]Understandingwar, [2]CNN (a), [3]CNN (b), [4]Ukrainska Pravda and [5]NBC.
Narratives
- Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. Ukraine's offensive into Kursk is having the desired effect of diverting Russian troops from Ukrainian territories to home turf, taking the pressure off Ukraine's defenses. However, there are also risks associated with this strategy. By sending elite troops to Russia, Ukrainian defenses may become more vulnerable to attack.
- Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. It is the West who facilitated a coup in Ukraine, who supplied it with arms, and who sent military trainers to the country prior to the conflict. Their intelligence agencies have since played an active role in the fighting. There is no way that the Kursk offensive took place without the permission and active planning of the West.
