African Union Suspends Niger Following Coup

Facts

• Following a meeting on Tuesday in, Ethiopia, the African Union (AU) suspended Niger from the continental bloc, effective immediately. The decision came after several Western countries cut aid to Niger following last month's coup, which overthrew Pres. Mohamed Bazoum.¹
• AU also expressed reservations about the West African regional bloc ECOWAS' [Economic Community of West African States] talk of a possible military intervention to restore Bazoum, saying they prefer a diplomatic resolution. The AU called on its Commission to "assess the economic, social, and security implications" of such an operation.²
• The AU called on all of its member states and the international community to not legitimize Niger's military government, saying, “We strongly reject any external interference by any party or country in the affairs of the continent, including private military companies.”³
• The AU council urged Niger's military to prioritize the interests of Nigerian citizens, return to their barracks, and surrender to civilian authorities immediately and without condition.⁴
• In a televised address on Saturday, Niger's military ruler General Abdourahamane Tchiani said that neither the junta nor the people of Niger want war and remain open to dialogue. Tchiani suggested that the transition back to civilian rule should last no longer than three years.⁵
• A leading official of ECOWAS said last week that the organization would not engage in "endless dialogue" with the junta. Instead, its military forces are ready to intervene militarily as soon as the order is given, if Bazoum is not reinstated, with ECOWAS saying a "D-Day" has been selected for intervention.⁵

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Africa News, ³WION, ⁴Le Monde.fr, and ⁵CNN.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Associated Press. The African Union's decision to suspend Niger's representatives from voting was part of a standard playbook for handling coups in Africa. The AU favors a diplomatic solution and has urged the coup leaders to reinstate President Bazoum and return to military bases. However, if these talks are unsuccessful, the military option is still on the table.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by BBC News. Niger's coup leader has pledged to restore civilian rule within three years as part of a peaceful transition. Meanwhile, all sanctions against Niger must come to an end for the sake of the Nigerian people. There must not be any imperial foreign interventions in the country — Niger has a right to defend itself from outside forces.

Predictions