Hundreds of Thousands of Afghans Leaving Pakistan Following Immigration Deadline

Facts

• Hundreds of thousands of Afghans are believed to be leaving Pakistan as part of an order by Islamabad for undocumented migrants to either exit the country or be deported as of Nov. 1.¹
• While Islamabad's order is aimed at all undocumented migrants, UN agencies estimate that there are over 2M Afghans currently illegally residing in Pakistan without paperwork, at least 600K of whom entered the state after the Taliban's 2021 return to power in Afghanistan.²
• Pakistan's own data estimates 1.7M individuals who must leave the country, with the state also claiming that nearly 200K Afghans returned to their country on Monday. According to a UN report, eight in 10 of those who left felt in fear of being arrested if they had stayed.³
• While Afghanistan's embassy in Islamabad has described the policy as 'harassment,' Pakistan claimed that the decision has been made to protect the 'welfare and security' of the state.⁴
• The policy had been announced why Pakistan's interim interior minister Sarfaraz Bugti on Oct. 3, stating that there had been 24 suicide bombings since January – with 14 carried out by 'Afghan nationals.' However, Bugti also claimed that the 'impression' only Afghans were being evicted was 'wrong.'⁵
• A spokesperson for the UN's United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Pakistan, Qaiser Khan Afridi, asked for the Pakistani government, which shares a 1.6K-mile border with Afghanistan, to create a 'comprehensive system' to help those at 'immediate risk of persecution' if they were to return to Afghanistan, arguing there were many whose freedom or life 'might be at risk.'⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²NPR Online News, ³BBC News, ⁴Al Jazeera (a), ⁵Al Jazeera (b) and ⁶Sky News.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Express Tribune. The current policy of forced repatriation of Afghan refugees prioritizes misconceptions concerning security over human rights. Many forced back to live under the Taliban-led government will be exposed to inhumane conditions and face the immediate threat of persecution. The Afghan population in Pakistan cannot be blamed for deep-rooted and multidimensional factors — including a current economic crisis — that has undermined security within the state. Pakistan must halt its expulsion order.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by The Nation. So far, the repatriation of Afghans — amongst other undocumented immigrants — has taken place in a safe and respectful manner. The voluntary process has been smooth due to Pakistan's establishment of facilities to provide water, tents, and food services, broadly leading to the satisfaction of those who have begun their journey home. While Pakistan will continue to provide relief and humanitarian assistance to refugees until they've been repatriated, Islamabad has a duty to prioritize its own citizen's safety and economy over anything else.

Predictions